This report covers the two foundational steps of a pre-sales strategy for BROAD DAYLIGHT: (1) which international markets to target based on genre fit and current buyer behavior, and (2) realistic minimum guarantee estimates for those territories given today's independent film market conditions. It draws on verified box office data from comparable theatrical horror titles, current market intelligence from AFM 2025 and EFM 2026, and an honest assessment of where the independent distribution landscape stands today.
All box office figures cited in this report are linked directly to primary sources. Where a figure could not be independently verified, it has been noted. The goal is to give us a defensible, data-grounded foundation from which to approach a sales agent and build our finance plan and a map of where opportunity realistically exists.
⚠ METHODOLOGY NOTE — Territory MG estimates are directional, not contractual. Actual figures depend on cast, a sales agent's buyer relationships, market timing, and deal structure. They are benchmarked against: (a) comp box office data for Longlegs, Talk to Me, and Hereditary; (b) AFM 2025 / EFM 2026 market intelligence; and (c) FilmTake Advance Index guidance for mid-tier commercial horror. These estimates assume: $10–12M budget, Marcus Dunstan attached, no US distributor yet, no major cast attached. A financed package with a name attached will yield materially higher MGs.
The 2026 horror market validates the investment thesis for BROAD DAYLIGHT, but the details matter. The headline box office numbers are strong; the underlying economics of how those films got financed and distributed are equally instructive.
The most important story of 2026 horror is not a studio franchise, but rather the emergence of creator-native horror as a theatrical force and the continued premium placed on original, high-concept genre IP. The market rewards originality, low budgets, and strong audience alignment. BROAD DAYLIGHT fits every one of those criteria.
The following cards are sourced directly from box office reporting. Figures and sources are linked.
The films earning the best ROI in 2026 horror share three characteristics: (1) micro-to-modest budgets ($500K–$3M), (2) festival acquisition by a specialist distributor, and (3) a distinctive, high-concept hook that generates social word-of-mouth. BROAD DAYLIGHT, at $10–12M, is in a different budget tier — closer to Hereditary or Longlegs than to Obsession or Iron Lung. But the pattern is instructive: a festival premiere leading to specialist acquisition is the proven pipeline. Undertone premiered at Fantasia 2025 and was acquired by A24 in a 7-figure deal; Obsession premiered at TIFF 2025 and was acquired by Focus/Blumhouse for $14M. These are our target markets and our target buyers.
The structural reality of indie horror pre-sales in 2025–2026 is more complex than the headline box office numbers suggest. Horror dominates domestically — 2025 delivered over $1B domestic before year-end, with Sinners ($367M), The Conjuring: Last Rites ($494M), and Final Destination Bloodlines ($315M) headlining.→ Wikipedia 2025 horror chart But the independent pre-sales market operates on different economics than studio-level theatrical distribution.
Market correction context: Per AFM 2025 reporting, the international indie film market has experienced its most significant contraction in a decade. A few years ago, a strong indie title could sell 20–35 territories with meaningful minimum guarantees. Today, even well-positioned films close 8–18 territories. Total MG deal values are down 30–70% from their 2014–2017 peak. Pay-TV output deals — once the financing backbone of indie pre-sales — have largely disappeared. This context is essential to calibrate expectations against the strong headline horror performance.
The meaningful exception to this contraction: genre films, and particularly horror, continue to outperform within the reduced market. As one EFM 2025 seller noted: "Genre films, and particularly the horror films, continue to work very well." A $15M bidding war at TIFF 2025 for a midnight horror slot confirmed the genre can still ignite competition when the package is right.
Pre-sale MGs are typically set as a percentage of a territory's projected theatrical gross — usually 15–30% for established buyers, lower for riskier territories. Our primary comp is Longlegs (2024): a ~$10M supernatural serial killer procedural distributed by Neon, which crossed $100M worldwide to become the highest-grossing indie horror film of the past decade — a budget profile and genre blend closest to BROAD DAYLIGHT. Talk to Me and Hereditary serve as secondary comps.
Territory-by-territory Longlegs figures below are sourced directly from Box Office Mojo. Note that not all territories are listed (Mexico, Brazil, France, and several Asian markets were not individually reported by BOM, and some LatAm/Asian releases were still forthcoming at the $100M announcement date).
| Territory | Longlegs (2024) Lifetime Gross | Talk to Me (2023) — Secondary | Notes for BD |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK / Ireland | $10,462,722 → BOM | Strong (A24 UK release) | Confirmed top international territory for Longlegs. Largest non-domestic horror market. Highest priority. |
| Russia / CIS | $4,522,210 → BOM | N/A | Not a pre-sales target for BD, but confirms the title's reach in non-obvious markets. |
| Spain | $3,102,078 → BOM | Solid | Sitges pipeline. Charades covers Iberia. Medium-high priority. |
| Germany | $2,409,354 → BOM | Moderate | PA Dutch = German cultural roots. Strong Saw/Collector pedigree. DCM pre-bought Longlegs for Germany — a directly relevant precedent. High priority. |
| Australia | $3,422,639 → BOM | $26M+ (Talk to Me origin market — outlier) | High-concept horror consistently overperforms per-capita here. Rialto pre-bought Longlegs for Australia — directly applicable. Strong priority. |
| Italy | $1,929,368 → BOM | Limited | Giallo tradition creates organic fit with BD's procedural-horror blend. Medium priority. |
| Netherlands | $1,409,788 → BOM | N/A | Reliable supplemental market. Often bundled in Benelux rights packages. |
| France | $1,361,491 → BOM | Distributed by Universal Fr. | Most stable independent buyer ecosystem in Europe. Metropolitan pre-bought Longlegs — directly applicable. High priority. |
| Norway | $681,874 → BOM | N/A | Scanbox pre-bought Longlegs for Scandinavia — directly applicable. Bundled Nordic rights are reliable supplemental revenue. |
| Colombia (only LatAm reported) | $343,092 → BOM | Strong (broader LatAm) | Mexico, Brazil, and most LatAm not individually reported by BOM. Sun Distribution pre-bought Longlegs for Latin America — directly applicable. |
| New Zealand | $408,681 → BOM | Strong | Bundled with Australia. Rialto covered both markets for Longlegs. |
| Domestic (US/Canada) | $74,346,140 → BOM | $48M domestic | Longlegs earned ~74% of its gross domestically — driven by Neon's exceptional domestic marketing campaign. BD's international share may be higher with the right international sales agent and wider pre-sales coverage. |
Longlegs — ~$10M budget, supernatural serial killer procedural, specialist distributor (Neon) — earned $31M internationally on its way to $100M worldwide.→ Variety Critically, Longlegs generated actual pre-sale deals with named buyers before release: Metropolitan (France), DCM (Germany), DeaPlaneta (Spain), Rialto (Australia/NZ), Scanbox (Scandinavia), and Sun Distribution (Latin America). These are the exact same buyer categories we are targeting for BROAD DAYLIGHT — and Longlegs provides a direct proof-of-concept that those buyers will commit to this type of project. Talk to Me ($92M worldwide, $44M+ international) and Hereditary ($90M worldwide) confirm the ceiling for well-executed elevated horror in this budget range.
The following estimates assume a finalized package with Dunstan attached, no US distributor committed, no major cast. These represent the current market floor for the right buyer with the right pitch. A committed US deal or name cast attachment would lift each figure materially — potentially 2–3x in top territories. All estimates are informed by FilmTake's Advance Index guidance for mid-tier commercial horror (Tier B classification).
The following is a conservative scenario model assuming a sales agent closes 10–12 territories at the lower end of the MG ranges — a realistic expectation for an uncast package with Dunstan attached. These are illustrative numbers to help us understand what pre-sales might realistically contribute to an $11M finance plan.
If a recognizable genre lead is attached before going to market, MGs in Tier 1 territories can increase 2–3x. UK could move to $700K–$1M; Germany to $500K–$800K; France to $400K–$600K. A strong cast attachment alone could lift total international pre-sales from ~$1.5M to ~$3.5–4.5M, shifting from ~14% equity offset to ~35–40%. This is the single highest-leverage action available before going to market.
Pre-sales alone will not finance BROAD DAYLIGHT. At the conservative scenario (~$1.5M), they are a meaningful de-risking tool and gap collateral source, but they represent roughly 14% of our budget. Here is how they fit into a complete financing stack.
Media Production Lending (MPL) is a category within specialty finance collateralized against receivables (pre-sales agreements, tax credits, distribution contracts) issued by creditworthy studios and distributors. The average MPL loan term is 12–15 months, yielding 15–27.5% APY per deal unlevered. The key structural feature: MPL lenders don't bear box office risk. They lend against already-contracted receivables, not against speculative theatrical performance.
This is directly relevant to our finance plan: signed pre-sale agreements and a Pennsylvania tax credit commitment become collateral for a gap loan from an MPL lender, converting pre-sales from future income into present cash. MPL lenders typically advance 75–80 cents on the dollar against the face value of pre-sale agreements. In otherwords, $1.5M in signed pre-sales could support approximately $1.1–1.2M in gap financing.
The 2026 relevance: The 2023 SAG/WGA strikes drove producers away from studio financing and toward private credit, and that shift has been durable. Private credit is now a normalized component of independent film finance, not an alternative of last resort. For a project at BROAD DAYLIGHT's budget level, approaching an MPL lender alongside the equity stack is standard practice.
These figures are illustrative models drawn from industry reporting and publicly available data. Before acting on any of this, we need to verify current Pennsylvania Film Office tax credit availability and caps (I've already left a message with them), consult with an entertainment attorney on deal structure, and have actual conversations with gap lenders (in process). The PA tax credit application requirement is 70% of financing verified before application, which means our equity and pre-sales work must be substantially complete before we can formally apply.
Our shopping window maps onto the following key pre-sales markets. The goal is to have a sales agent signed and package finalized before the first major market date.
| Market / Event | Date | Role for BD | Preparation Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| Festival Circuit (SXSW / Fantasia / TIFF) | Mar / Jul / Sep | A festival premiere is the proven pipeline to specialist acquisition: Undertone (Fantasia → A24), Obsession (TIFF → Focus/Blumhouse). Any of these festivals represents a viable launch platform for BD depending on production timeline. TIFF is the strongest for commercial horror acquisitions; SXSW for genre-crossover; Fantasia for pure genre credibility. | Submission-ready cut. Determine which festival window aligns with production schedule. |
| Sitges Film Festival | October 2026 | World's leading genre festival. Directly relevant to Spanish territory pre-sales. Buyer access for Iberian market. | Package or early trailer. Relationship-building with Charades/Iberian buyers. |
| AFM 2026 | November 2026 | Primary North American pre-sales market for our window. Good for launching territory conversations and locking deals. Pre-market meetings increasingly preferred. Our sales agent will need to be working buyer relationships weeks before the market opens. | Full package, director LOI, any cast developments, target buyer list finalized with sales agent. |
| EFM / Berlin 2027 | February 2027 | Targeted, high-level European market. Good for completing European closes begun at AFM and locking remaining Tier 1 territories. | Near-final finance plan, any significant developments (cast, US distributor talks). |
| Cannes Marché 2027 | May 2027 | Strongest market overall for pre-sales launches. If earlier markets have not fully closed our territory slate, Cannes is the final major opportunity in this window and the most active market for international buyers. | All remaining open territory pitches. Updated finance plan. Any package upgrades (cast, US deal) to leverage. |
Not every agent on our existing target list has the same territorial strengths. The following maps our current targets to the Tier 1 and Tier 2 territories most critical to our finance plan.
| Agent | Key Territory Strength | BD Fit Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Cinetic Media | US + all Tier 1 territories (It Follows, Babadook, A Girl Walks Home) | Best overall fit. Gold standard for elevated horror with theatrical + streaming life. First choice if they engage. |
| XYZ Films | International horror specialists — Germany, France, UK, Spain, LatAm (Mandy, Piggy, The Invitation) | Excellent international horror pre-sales track record covering exactly the right territories. Strong second choice. |
| Paradigm Agency | Insidious, Oculus, Slotherhouse, Cooties — proven horror buyers and packagers across domestic and international | Strong horror genre credentials. Babacar Diene, Jake Dexter, and Nick LoPiccolo have active buyer relationships in key territories. Third choice with solid packaging muscle. |
| Charades | France, Spain, Europe (Piggy, Revenge, Aftersun) | Best French/Iberian market access. Consider for co-representation if primary agent lacks European depth. Carole Baraton already on our contact list. |
| Memento International | Europe + festival circuit (Night of the 12th, Drift) | Strong European footprint. Complementary to Cinetic or XYZ for European territory completion. |
| The Film Sales Company | Sundance genre breakouts, Blumhouse-adjacent titles | Good post-festival connector. Blumhouse relationship may help if Blumhouse's existing interest in It Visits Me translates to BD relationship. |
| WME / UTA | Primarily domestic packaging | Less relevant to pure international pre-sales; critical for domestic MG and streaming deals that increase international leverage. Pursue in parallel, not instead of. |
The Pennsylvania Dutch mythology at BROAD DAYLIGHT's core is a specific asset worth understanding from an international sales perspective. Folk horror's international appeal is rooted in its universality: every culture has its own tradition of folk magic, ancestral curses, and rural supernatural beliefs. Audiences in Germany, France, and Latin America are not alienated by American-specific folklore; they find it resonant because they have analog myths in their own heritage.
The Plain Man is not just an American villain. He's an archetypal folk horror figure with roots that stretch back into European mythology. The Pennsylvania Dutch tradition that animates him is, etymologically and historically, a German immigrant tradition. For international buyers, this gives BROAD DAYLIGHT a mythology that feels simultaneously exotic and ancestral. That duality is a sales asset, not a limitation. It should be in our materials before the first DACH buyer meeting.